Tension is rapidly rising across Nigeria’s North-East as alarming warnings from a military strategist suggest that the security situation in Borno State may be approaching a dangerous tipping point. According to the source, Boko Haram insurgents have reportedly encircled Maiduguri, raising fears that the terrorist group could soon launch a large-scale assault on the Borno State capital.
The strategist, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the situation, warned that the unfolding crisis could resemble the devastation once witnessed in Mogadishu, Somalia, if urgent and strategic actions are not taken.
“The situation is getting out of hand. Maiduguri is encircled, besieged. A replay of Mogadishu is about to begin,” the source revealed, adding that political and military authorities appear to be underestimating the severity of the threat.
According to the military insider, recent battlefield losses suffered by Nigerian troops in several parts of Borno have emboldened Boko Haram fighters and weakened the strategic defensive positions protecting Maiduguri.
The source emphasised that Konduga, a critical defensive position protecting the approach to Maiduguri, is strategically vital. With insurgents reportedly dislodging military units there, the security architecture surrounding the state capital has been significantly compromised.
“Konduga is strategic and vital for the defence of Maiduguri,” the source warned, urging the country’s leadership to urgently reassess the current military strategy.
The strategist further explained that Boko Haram’s capture or disruption of several military units has allowed insurgents to reshape the battlefield and isolate Nigerian troops stationed in other areas such as Bama.
“Now that the Boko Haram terrorists have dislodged it and are effectively in control, they have isolated troops based in Bama,” the source said.
The situation, according to the strategist, creates multiple dangerous scenarios for Nigerian forces. Insurgents could launch direct attacks on Bama, move swiftly toward Maiduguri, or initiate simultaneous assaults on multiple locations to overwhelm military defences.
One possibility is that insurgents could attempt to seize Bama first before advancing toward the state capital. Another scenario involves coordinated attacks on both Maiduguri and Bama while using Monguno as a diversion to stretch Nigerian forces thin and prevent reinforcement.
“A third option for the insurgents is to simultaneously attack Maiduguri and Bama while engaging Monguno as deception,” the source explained.
The warning also highlighted the psychological impact of recent losses on Nigerian troops. Several military bases in Borno have reportedly come under intense attack in recent weeks, leading to casualties and the destruction of military assets.
These setbacks, according to the source, may be affecting troop morale at a critical moment.
“The setback that the Military has suffered in recent weeks in the North East is demoralising the troops,” the strategist said, adding that such losses could weaken the fighting spirit of soldiers on the frontlines.
In contrast, Boko Haram fighters appear to be gaining renewed confidence on the battlefield.
“With momentum on their side, the insurgents may feel emboldened to attempt attacks on Maiduguri and Bama either simultaneously or in phases,” the source warned.
The grim security outlook follows a series of deadly attacks on Nigerian military formations across Borno State.
In one of the most recent incidents, a senior Nigerian Army officer, Lieutenant Colonel Umar Farouq, was reportedly killed during a coordinated Boko Haram attack on a military base in Kukuwa town.
Sources said militants from the Islamic State-backed faction of Boko Haram stormed the base, dislodged troops, set military vehicles ablaze and looted large quantities of ammunition before launching attacks on residents of the surrounding community in Kukawa Local Government Area.
The attack came just days after another senior officer, Lieutenant Colonel S.I. Iliyasu, the Commanding Officer of the 222 Battalion, was killed alongside several soldiers during an assault in Konduga.
Over the past weeks, insurgents have intensified attacks on multiple military installations across Borno State. Between late Thursday night and early Friday morning last week, gunmen reportedly launched simultaneous attacks on four military bases in Konduga, Mainok, Jakana and Marte.
Witnesses and security sources said the attackers arrived in different groups and opened fire sporadically on the bases, causing significant casualties among troops.
During the raids, several armoured tanks and military vehicles were reportedly destroyed while insurgents carted away an unspecified quantity of weapons and ammunition.
Despite the losses, military sources said Nigerian troops also managed to kill several Boko Haram fighters while repelling some of the attacks.
However, the strategist warned that the Nigerian military must avoid becoming trapped in a purely defensive posture, arguing that wars are rarely won without decisive offensive action.
“The military should stabilise their immediate positions and thereafter go on the offensive,” the source advised. “Battles and wars are not won by remaining in a defensive position.”
The source also acknowledged the immense pressure currently facing Nigeria’s military leadership, noting that the armed forces are battling armed groups across multiple regions simultaneously.
“I don’t envy the military leadership. They have their plate full,” the source said, referencing ongoing security challenges in the North-West and North-Central regions.
As fear spreads across the North-East, the warning from the military strategist adds to growing concerns that without swift and coordinated action, Nigeria could face one of the most dangerous phases of the Boko Haram insurgency in recent years.