A fresh security assessment by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has revealed how fuel smuggling and control of illicit border trade routes are increasingly driving militant expansion and violence across Nigeria’s borderlands.
In the report released on Thursday, ACLED warned that governance failures, porous borders, and weak security presence are creating fertile ground for armed groups to entrench themselves, particularly in northwestern and north-central Nigeria.
According to the report, the control of illicit trade routes—especially fuel smuggling corridors linking Nigeria to riverine communities in Niger and Benin and areas surrounding the WAP Complex—has become a central pillar of militant influence.
“The control over illicit trade routes, especially fuel smuggling connecting northwestern and north-central Nigeria with riverine communes in Niger and Benin, and other areas surrounding the WAP Complex, has linked local livelihoods and economies to militant presence,” the report stated.
ACLED noted that these routes, often traversing rivers and remote rural corridors, are not only vital for economic survival but also serve as logistical arteries for armed groups.
Boat operators play a critical role, transporting fuel, supplies, and people across waterways that are largely beyond the reach of state security. This mobility, the report said, enables militants to move weapons and fighters with ease while sustaining illicit trade networks.
“Communities and traders along these routes have become increasingly dependent on access, taxation, and protection arrangements provided by these groups, leading to both passive and active support,” ACLED added.
The report paints a grim picture of communities trapped between economic survival and insecurity. In areas around the WAP Complex, residents whose livelihoods depend on river transport and cross-border trade often have little choice but to comply with systems imposed by armed groups.
Such compliance ranges from paying protection fees and granting access to transport routes to directly facilitating the movement of supplies and fighters. ACLED stressed that these dynamics blur the line between voluntary cooperation and coerced support, allowing militants to operate with minimal resistance.
These conditions, the report explained, have enabled Sahelian militant groups to expand deeper into Nigeria’s border regions. Strategic transit hubs and supply routes connecting Nigeria to militant-held territories in neighboring countries have become key points of consolidation.
“These dynamics also help explain the Sahelian militants’ expansion into Nigerian border areas, where key transit hubs are located, and supply routes serve communities and militant-held areas in the neighboring countries,” the report noted.
ACLED further identified weak governance as a major driver of the crisis. Limited state presence, poor border enforcement, and the absence of coordinated security strategies across local, state, and federal levels have left vast territories effectively ungoverned.
In such environments, armed groups exploit economic dependence and insecurity to strengthen their control, maintain illicit revenue streams, and expand operations with little oversight.
The report warned that unless structural reforms are implemented, the cycle of violence will persist.
“The interconnection between illicit trade, community dependency, and militant presence has become self-reinforcing,” ACLED said, noting that armed groups continue to exploit economic and logistical vulnerabilities to secure compliance and expand their reach.
The findings come amid escalating insecurity across several Nigerian states, including Kwara, Zamfara, Niger, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Ondo.
During the week, Amnesty International raised alarm over the worsening security situation following a deadly attack on Gwana district in Alkaleri Local Government Area of Bauchi State.
In a statement issued on Monday, February 23, 2026, the rights group described the assault as devastating:
“The coordinated attack by gunmen that invaded Gwana district in Alkaleri LGA of Bauchi state leading to the killing of at least four persons and abduction of dozens in the evening of Friday had also triggered mass displacement. Unspecified number of women and girls have also been abducted.”
The attack occurred as villagers gathered to break their fast during Ramadan, deepening fears that rural communities remain dangerously exposed and unprotected.
ACLED’s report ultimately presents a stark warning: without addressing weak governance, porous borders, and economic dependence on illicit trade, Nigeria’s borderlands will remain vulnerable to militant control.
“The control over illicit trade routes has linked local livelihoods and economies to militant presence,” the report emphasised, underscoring the urgent need for interventions that tackle both security gaps and the underlying economic realities sustaining armed groups.
For Nigeria, the message is clear—security solutions must go beyond military responses to include governance reforms, economic alternatives, and coordinated regional border management, or the cycle of violence will continue to deepen.
— Chronicles Reporters