With just six weeks remaining until the U.S. election, Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, with 49% supporting her compared to 44% for Trump.
This marks a notable shift from July, when Trump had a 2-point advantage before President Joe Biden exited the race. Harris’s favorability has surged by 16 points since then, representing the largest increase for any politician in NBC polling since George W. Bush’s post-9/11 rise.
Recent data from a national NBC News poll reveals that Harris is now perceived more positively than Trump regarding competence and overall fitness for the presidency, overturning Trump’s previous lead in these categories. In a climate where many voters feel the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction, Harris has positioned herself as a candidate for change.
“The winds have shifted in Kamala Harris’s favor,” noted Jeff Horwitt from Hart Research Associates.
Despite this, Trump maintains an edge on economic issues, particularly inflation, though his lead has diminished compared to past elections. Voters express concern that two-thirds feel their family income isn’t keeping pace with rising living costs, making it their primary election issue.
Some of Trump’s dwindling support appears to come from Republicans who are not ardent loyalists but may revert to him by Election Day, as seen in 2016 and 2020. “They may waver on Trump but tend to come back in the end,” explained Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
Both analysts agree that the dynamics of the 2024 race resemble those of 2020, with a polarized electorate and the Democratic nominee enjoying broader appeal. “This movement toward Harris essentially brings the race back to where it was in 2020,” Horwitt stated.
The NBC poll, conducted from September 13-17, follows a period of political upheaval, including Biden’s withdrawal from the race, two party conventions, and an assassination attempt on Trump.
In head-to-head matchups, Harris leads Trump 49% to 44%, and her advantage extends to 6 points in a three-way race that includes third-party candidates. Her support is notably strong among Black voters (85%-7%), voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), and women (58%-37%). Harris’s backing among independents reflects Biden’s July lead, with her holding a 43%-35% edge in that group.
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