Recent data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) suggests that President Bola Tinubu may have provided inaccurate information about Nigeria’s oil production during his recent nationwide address.
In a speech on August 4, President Tinubu addressed concerns raised by the #EndBadGovernance protesters, claiming that Nigeria’s crude oil production had reached 1.6 million barrels per day. He attributed this increase to the reforms his administration implemented in the oil sector, saying, “Our once-declining oil and gas industry is experiencing a resurgence on the back of the reforms I announced in May 2024 to address the gaps in the Petroleum Industry Act. Last month, we increased our oil production to 1.61 million barrels per day, and our gas assets are receiving the attention they deserve. Investors are coming back, and we have already seen two Foreign Direct Investments signed of over half a billion dollars since then.”
However, OPEC’s latest figures tell a different story. According to their data, Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at 1.3 million barrels per day in July 2024—the same month Tinubu cited in his speech. Both direct communication and secondary sources reported this figure, which falls 300,000 barrels short of Tinubu’s claim.
Additionally, OPEC’s data shows that Nigeria’s production has not yet returned to the 1.4 million barrels per day level recorded in January 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Historically, OPEC’s data closely aligns with the figures released by the Nigerian government. For instance, in May 2024, both OPEC and NUPRC reported Nigeria’s crude oil production at 1.25 million barrels per day. In June 2024, OPEC again reported production at 1.27 million barrels per day, consistent with NUPRC’s figures.
The source of the data President Tinubu used in his August 4 address remains unclear.
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