A recent NBC News poll indicates a statistical deadlock between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, as Trump gains traction with Republican voters following a challenging debate last month. This shift reflects a growing favorable view of Trump’s presidency among voters.
With Election Day just three weeks away, the survey highlights a decrease in Harris’s popularity compared to last month, following a notable summer boost. It also reveals significant differences in support between men and women, with abortion becoming a key issue motivating voters for the 2024 election.
Moreover, a national survey from The Napolitan Institute confirms a tie, with both candidates at 49%. This suggests a tightly contested race ahead. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff, noted, “As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped. The race is a dead heat.”
McInturff pointed out several challenges for Harris, including perceptions that she does not represent a departure from President Joe Biden, as well as a rising positive view of Trump’s time in office. He remarked, “She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” highlighting the uphill battle Harris faces.
Horwitt added, “The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” He also emphasized the difficulty Trump faces in convincing voters that the chaos of his previous term won’t hinder his ability to govern effectively.
The latest NBC poll shows both candidates tied at 48% in a direct matchup, a significant change from September, when Harris held a 5-point lead at 49% to 44%. However, it is important to note that the previous margin was within the error range.
When third-party candidates are considered, Trump slightly leads Harris, 47% to 46%, with 7% of voters undecided or leaning towards other candidates. This marks a shift from September, where Harris enjoyed a 6-point advantage in the expanded ballot.
Conducted between October 4 and 8, this poll suggests a tightening race between the major-party candidates, contrasting sharply with last month’s figures that showed Harris in the lead.
As the election nears, this poll heightens speculation about the 2024 presidential race. While Harris and Trump are statistically tied, demographic analysis reveals differing levels of support.
Harris maintains significant backing from Black voters (84% to 11%) and leads among younger voters aged 18-34 (57% to 37%). In terms of education, she has an advantage among white voters with college degrees (55% to 41%).
Geographically, Trump performs strongly among rural voters (75% to 23%), while a notable gender gap exists: women support Harris by 14 points (55% to 41%), and men favor Trump by 16 points (56% to 40%).
These variances underscore the complexities of the upcoming election, with distinct voter groups showing strong preferences for each candidate.
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